[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101813
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE AT 10/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
22.4 57.7W MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING TO SOME DEGREE
DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
OF -70C AT 50000 FEET EXIST FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. THE CLOSEST PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ALONG
43W/44W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W SOUTH OF 15N AND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IRENE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH
CURRENTLY COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W. DRY AIR SURROUNDS
THIS AREA OF DRY AIR. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS FROM 13.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W...FROM EAST OF
SAINT VINCENT TO GUADELOUPE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH STRETCH IN A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...AND SOUTH
OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...ARE OCCURRING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF
80W ALSO ARE UNDER THE SAME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N17W 10N26W 11N41W 12N50W 11N62W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 15.5W AND 17.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...
AND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN
40W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST
OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N115W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS JUST EAST OF
THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO MEXICO FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 101W AND
102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 29N101W TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA INTO EASTERN PART OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH WAS
JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
NORTHWARD NOW TO 26N88W. A TROUGH HAS DEEPENED SOUTHWESTWARD
OF THIS 26N88W CENTER...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF. THE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO AMPLIFY BECAUSE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TROUGH. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC 29N71W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. A SURFACE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS JUST SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. ONE TROUGH GOES
FROM THIS LOW CENTER GOES BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND
ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INTO EAST TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH
OF THE 26N88W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 92W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND BETWEEN 31N74W 23N76W AND 80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS LONG AS
THE CYCLONIC CENTERS REMAIN IN THE GULF...AND AS LONG AS THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 29N71W CYCLONIC CENTER AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DO NOT MOVE MUCH EITHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WEST OF 70W WITH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH STRETCH IN A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
TO SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...AND SOUTH
OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...ARE OCCURRING UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF
80W ALSO ARE UNDER THE SAME UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IN BROAD
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W. THE CENTER OF THIS
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR 20N60W...NOT CERTAIN. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ABUNDANT EAST OF 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER
FEATURES...THE 29N71W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 55W
AND 67W. THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR
20N60W...NOT CERTAIN. A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CENTER IS NEAR 19N44W ON TOP OF THE 43W/44W TROPICAL WAVE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR ARE EAST OF 30W.

$$
MT


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