[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 57.3W AT
10/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A LOW LEVEL
CENTER ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...IRENE CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION IN A CYCLONIC ROTATION. IRENE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25.5N BETWEEN 53W-57W WITH A LINE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF 18N58W 25N59W
29N57W TO 30N51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
E MOST ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 8.5N
FROM 24W-27W.

CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 15N MOVING
W 10 KT. SIGNATURE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DUE TO DRY UPPER AIR N OF 10N ANY ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN
40W-45W.

W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 15N MOVING W 10
KT. WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N TO 13N57W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 20N MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE IS BENEATH N UPPER FLOW ON THE E EDGE OF AN UPPER HIGH
WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 9N27W 11N40W 12N52W 11N58W
12N62W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 28W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W LOUISIANA. MID/UPPER LOW
IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS CENTERED NEAR 24N88W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE SW WHERE A MID/UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS S OF 26N E OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THIS IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 80'S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
70'S ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1018
MB HIGH IS IN THE W GULF NEAR 25N92W. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
11N81W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA TO OVER S
FLORIDA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 73W TO OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. MOIST UPPER AND LOWER AIR ARE NOW ABLE TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N
FROM 74W-85W. MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC...SW OF
IRENE...PRODUCING NW TO W FLOW AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 71W. THE UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT WNW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BEFORE THE WEEKS END.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW ATLC AND THE WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 29N72W IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THEM TO
GENERATE A WIDER BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N79W
ALONG 30N78W TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW NEAR 30N71W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OVER
HAITI. WEAKENING UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC IS NEAR
20N67W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE TO 28N63W AND A RIDGE EXTENDING
S TO PUERTO RICO. A MID/UPPER LOW IS SW OF IRENE NEAR 19N59W
COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 56W-66W. THIS KEEPING THE
E CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N FROM 43W-70W UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR...EXCEPT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
T.D. IRENE AND THE TROPICAL WAVES. MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 27N FROM 40W-57W AND GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N FROM 41W-46W IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH FROM 32N46W TO 30N51W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 18N27W...THUS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION TO S OF THE ITCZ. AT
THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS SPLIT BY T.D. IRENE WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC REGRESSING NORTHWARD AND EXTENDS FROM A
1025 MB HIGH WELL NE OF BERMUDA TO THE BAHAMAS...AND HIGH
PRESSURE COVERING THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 20W-50W WITH A 1025
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N42W.

$$
WALLACE



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