[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE AT 09/2100 UTC IS NEAR
22.6 54.4W MOVING WEST 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  IRENE CONTINUES TO BE UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR
FROM A MID ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  OUTFLOW CIRRUS CLOUDS
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  IT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 38W-41W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N20W 10N30W 9N40W 10N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 26W-34W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS OVER S ALABAMA.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 85W-88W.  FURTHER E...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND
FLORIDA FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N92W.  FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE W
GULF...HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 92W-96W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
24N88W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED OVER THE N GULF N OF
26N.  EXPECT...BOTH SURFACE FEATURES TO BE STATIONARY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA.
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND COSTA
RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 87W-92W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N81W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO CUBA
NEAR 23N81W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS
ADVECTING OVER TO THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY W OF 81W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1022 MB HIGH IS NEAR BERMUDA AT 33N67W.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IRENE IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
31N78W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E AT 30N71W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
23N65W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER T.D. IRENE NEAR 22N55W
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 12N51W.  A VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
16N24W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA



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