[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE AT 09/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
22.3 53.9W MOVING WEST 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST
4 TO 5 HOURS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
COMPARATIVELY NEWEST AREA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 21N54W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
IRENE...PASSING THROUGH A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 34N37W TO
30N43W TO 29N50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE NEWEST TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. IT WAS SPOTTED IN A 48 HOUR-LONG INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOP AND IN UPPER AIR TIMESECTIONS. IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE CLOSEST PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ITCZ.

EASTERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED WESTWARD BY
4 TO 5 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE BASED ON WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AT
08/1200 UTC AND A 48 HOUR-LONG INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP
AND CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ ARE FOUND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN
37W AND 42W.

A TROUGH...QUITE POSSIBLY WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
WHICH GAVE RISE TO T.D. IRENE...WAS ALONG 13N50W 10N51W 7N51W...
MOVING WEST 10 KT. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DISSIPATING AND/OR ALREADY
DISSIPATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES...FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 20N67W...
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 15N68W...TO VENEZUELA NEAR 9N69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N76W 16N71W 18N70W 19N70W...
GOING FROM SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 15N17W 13N23W 12N26W 11N38W 9N49W 9N52W 10N62W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W
AND 43W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 42W AND 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6.5N TO 8.5N
BETWEEN 53W AND 59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF WATERS
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE GULF EAST OF 90W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA KEEPS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH OF 23N EAST
OF 93W. A TROUGH CONNECTS THE ATLANTIC 30N72W CYCLONIC CENTER
TO 25N73W EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...TO A SHEAR AXIS IN THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA...TO 23N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 27N. A RIDGE IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ATLANTIC 30N72W CYCLONIC CENTER
AND TROUGH...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER.
A SURFACE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS JUST SOUTH OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29.7N87W. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM
THIS LOW CENTER EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR
28N83W...AND ANOTHER TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N90W
AND 29N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE IN THE GULF NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND 95W/96W ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT MORE
OF THE SAME FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS LONG AS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CUBA NORTHWARD TO 30N BETWEEN
73W AND FLORIDA...NOW AND PROBABLY WILL BE THERE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO...AGAIN...AS LONG AS THE 30N72W CYCLONIC CENTER
AND TROUGH REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W...
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WEST OF 70W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF
80W WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/GULF OF MEXICO 23N88W
CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 18N80W 16N89W TO 20N. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE ALONG THE
NICARAGUA-TO-COSTA RICA-TO PANAMA COASTS FROM 11.5N TO 9.5N.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MORE ABUNDANT
IN COVERAGE AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH COLDER SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...AND SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 79W AND
82W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMED LEAVING DEBRIS CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 76W. THE ITCZ WAS ALONG 9N/10N
BETWEEN NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL
WAVE WAS ALONG 20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 15N68W...
TO VENEZUELA NEAR 9N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N76W
16N71W 18N70W 19N70W...GOING FROM SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...EAST OF 66W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OTHER
FEATURES...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...WHICH USED TO BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THREE TO FOUR DAYS AGO...AND WHICH EVENTUALLY
MOVED NORTHWARD...NOW IS NEAR 30N72W. A TROUGH CONNECTS THE
ATLANTIC 30N72W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N73W EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
TO A SHEAR AXIS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE 23N88W
CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
26N67W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER MOVES
SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF T.D.IRENE...PASSING THROUGH
A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 34N37W TO 30N43W TO 29N50W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N53W TO 28N58W TO 25N63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN
60W AND 62W...AND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN
15 NM RADIUS OF 27N64W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N42W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
40W TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ARE EAST OF 30W.

$$
MT


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