[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.6N 52.7W AT
09/0600 UTC MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO
THE W OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. IRENE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN VERY DRY UPPER AIR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS 60 NM OF LINE 20.5N52W-25.5N50.5W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK WAVE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT
THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY AIR THUS LIMITING CONVECTION TO WITHIN
THE ITCZ.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY UPPER DRY AIR. BROAD
SIGNATURE CURVATURE EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
16N-18.5N BETWEEN 65W-70W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N20W 11N30W 8N46W 11N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 46W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE N GULF TO NEAR 28N90W WITH A SURFACE LOW TO THE E OVER THE W
FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST E OF PENSACOLA NEAR 31N85W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 24N86W. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED
BY MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGES. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SE TO 24N92W WITH A WEAKENING N/S OVER S
MEXICO PRODUCING NW UPPER FLOW OVER THE SW GULF. DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS IS PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE 25N90W-27N95W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N88W RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF
90W. THIS ENTIRE SCENARIO HAS DEVELOPED A BROAD MID/UPPER LOW IN
THE S GULF NEAR 22N91W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE BROAD MID/UPPER LOW IN THE
SW GULF THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO BETWEEN E CUBA AND
JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 17N. SE OF THE
TROUGH IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N74W COVERING THE AREA S
OF 18N W OF 67W TO OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW AREA IS GENERATING A
LINE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
NE HONDURAS TO W JAMAICA. THE ITCZ AXIS RUNS ALONG THE N COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA...WITH A SURFACE LOW INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA ARE TOGETHER GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 13N W OF
75W. E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY UPPER E FLOW AND VERY DRY UPPER
AIR. THE ONLY CONVECTION E OF 75W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER HIGH IS IN THE FAR W ATLC ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ACROSS FLORIDA. THIS
UPPER HIGH HAS BEEN SQUEEZED W BY A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW TO THE
E NEAR 30N74W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S
TO THE CUBAN COAST NEAR 22N77W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 76W WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
N BAHAMAS. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC IS NEAR
20N61W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NNW TO TO BEYOND 32N66W AND
COVERING THE AREA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC N OF 15N W OF 55W
GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC  S OF 24N FROM 50W-65W
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR...EXCEPT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
T.D. IRENE. THIS IS THE AREA OF DRY AIR THAT IS ONE OF THE
FACTORS IN PREVENTING IRENE FROM FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME. MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 33N41W SW TO JUST NE OF T.D. IRENE. DUE TO THE
DRY UPPER AIR...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
28N54W TO BEYOND 32N49W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 20N29W...THUS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ W OF 40W. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS SPLIT BY T.D. IRENE WITH A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC FROM A
1023 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND A RIDGE
IN THE E ATLC FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N40W TO 20N29W.

$$
WALLACE



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