[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 080903
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS DECREASED NOTABLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS NORTH OF
THE GULF STREAM AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/12...UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE THE LAST FEW SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MAY BE
FARTHER EAST THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION.  OTHER THAN THAT...THE
TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  HARVEY SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...THEN
SLOW AND TURN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH
RACES THE STORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...A LITTLE FASTER IN
THE FIRST 72 HR AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER.

HARVEY SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 24
HR...AND MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ARE RE-INTENSIFYING
HARVEY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TO 35 KT BY 120
HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0900Z 38.9N  50.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 39.9N  48.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 40.9N  46.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 41.5N  44.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 42.1N  42.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 42.5N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 42.5N  35.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0600Z 42.0N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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