[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 080244
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

HARVEY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
ESTIMATED CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN...REMAIN AT 3.0...45
KT.  HARVEY WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOON.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 045/11.  HARVEY IS MOVING WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD.  GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY
FROM DAYS 4 TO 5.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0300Z 37.8N  51.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 38.8N  50.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 39.8N  48.1W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 40.7N  46.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  44.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 42.5N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 43.0N  36.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0000Z 43.0N  35.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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