[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY IS CENTERED N OF AREA NEAR 37.0N 52.6W AT
2100 UTC AND IS MOVING NE AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED NE OF THE CENTER FROM
37N-41N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

TROPICAL STORM IRENE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.1N 46.5W AT 2100 UTC
AND IS MOVING WNW 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED WELL TO THE W
OF CURRENT CONVECTION.
 `
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE S OF 17N MOVING
W 15 KT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED.  CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS
CONFIRMED BY THE LOCAL BUOY WINDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.  THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE SHOWS GOOD CURVATURE AND ACTIVE
CONVECTION OVER THE E PACIFIC.  FURTHER N...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 93W-96W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 10N23W 10N27W 7N35W 12N50W 13N59W
11N63W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 21W-27W...FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 30W-35W...AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 24N90W.  A
1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N93W.  ANOTHER 1018 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N84W.  AIRMASS CONVECTION IS OVER
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 80W-87W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUBA TO THE W GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 22N80W 22N95W.  A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA
AND THE E GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W GULF TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE OTHER SURFACE HIGH
DISSIPATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S
COAST OF CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-82W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 13N BETWEEN
70W-90W WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST
OF CUBA.  THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W HAS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM
THE S.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NW OF BERMUDA NEAR
34N69W.  FURTHER S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG
29N73W 21N75W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-30N BETWEEN 68W-77W.  T.S. HARVEY AND T.S. IRENE ARE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N77W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N71W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N56W.  A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR 19N45W PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT NW SHEAR OVER T.S. IRENE.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 30N40W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF 30W N OF 5N.

$$
FORMOSA


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