[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 072036
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL
CENTERS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CIRCULATION OF HARVEY A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL MORE OF THESE
SMALL CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP...DISSIPATE..AND RE-DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AS THE PRIMARY CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES WERE 3.0/3.0...SO
HARVEY REMAINS A SHEARED 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII AND 12-FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN
18Z SHIP REPORT.

THE 18-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/11.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER FOREWARD
MOTION THEREAFTER.  THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...ALONG 60W...IS
CONTINUING TO DIG WEST OF HARVEY AND WILL STEER THE STORM
NORTHEASTWARD.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE EAST OF HARVEY IN 2 OR 3
DAYS. ONCE THIS OCCURS... HARVEY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WEAKER WESTERLIES.

THE FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE OTHER
THAN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
RE-LOCATED CENTER...AND A SLOWER EAST- NORTHEAST MOTION IN THE
LATER PERIODS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL HOPEFULLY OCCUR IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGH 5 DAYS.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/2100Z 37.0N  52.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 37.9N  51.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 39.1N  49.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 40.2N  47.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 41.0N  44.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 42.2N  40.7W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 43.0N  38.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/1800Z 43.0N  35.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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