[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY IS CENTERED N OF AREA AT 35.8N 53.5W AT
1500 UTC AND IS MOVING NE AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED NE OF THE CENTER WITHIN
90 NM OF 38N52W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IRENE AT
07/1500 UTC NEAR 20.5N 45.5W AND MOVING WNW 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
OR MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
HAS BECOME EXPOSED WELL TO THE W OF CURRENT CONVECTION.
`
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ESTIMATED ALONG 25.5W TO THE S OF 20N
MOVING W 18 KT. ALTHOUGH A LARGE AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACCOMPANY THE WAVE....ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 19N...AND CONTINUE
TO SPREAD W ACROSS THE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ONLY A FEW TSTMS
ARE ENHANCED NEAR 12N26W AT THE MOMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N58W TO 21N56W AND IS MOVING W AT
15 KT. THE 12Z POSITIONING WAS BASED ON WIND SHIFTS REPORTED IN
BUOY OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM OF 16N56.5W. A MUCH LARGER AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W FROM 5N TO 23N MOVING W 15 KT.
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AREA ENHANCED OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT
A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE E PACIFIC ALONG 96W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 8N34W 14N52W 10N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF LINE 9N28W 7N34W 10N39W 7N42W.


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N86W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
S OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 30N88W TO 23N89W. UPPER DRY
SUBSIDING AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE 30N88W 1015 MB. A DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS ALONG 28N81W 26N88W.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ENHANCED BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 25N89W 31N84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH 17N79W
TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 19N85W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ALONG THE SE CUBAN COAST...OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE
NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM NICARAGUA AT 13N83W TO
COLOMBIA AT 9N77W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN...
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR TO THE E OF 66W. UPPER DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER VENEZUELA IS ADVECTED N BETWEEN
67W AND 74W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID TO UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 32N71W
RIDGING WESTWARD TO NE FLORIDA. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR
24N72W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE SW ATLC
S OF 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 77W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED OVER THE NW
QUADRANT WITHIN 180 NM OF 27N73W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE
SPREADING W ACROSS THE BAHAMA CHAIN AND SE FLORIDA.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED TO THE NE OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE
NEAR 30N41W WITH A TROUGH SW TO NEAR 22N46W. DEBRIS MOISTURE
FROM IRENE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
19N45W 30N33W. DRY UPPER SUBSIDING AIR IS NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
12N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR
34N43W.

TO THE E OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
32N22W 21N32W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 12N32W. DRY UPPER AIR IS
NOTED WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE TROUGH TO THE N OF 20N...AND WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH S OF 20N. E OF THE TROUGH AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF AFRICA AT 215N TO NEAR 24N25W.

$$
NELSON


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