[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 071443
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES HARVEY'S CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION...AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENTLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  DVORAK DATA-T CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
SHOWED RAIN ENHANCED 50KT WINDS IN THE STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION
WITH SEVERAL NON-FLAGGED 40 KT AND 45 KT WINDS.  BOTH THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 45 KT.

THE 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/10. THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION THEREAFTER.  WITH THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND SST'S BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HARVEY TO SLOW DOWN
ONCE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT
SLOWER...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/1500Z 35.8N  53.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 36.9N  52.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 38.1N  50.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 39.3N  48.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 40.2N  46.4W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 41.0N  42.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1200Z 42.0N  38.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/1200Z 42.5N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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