[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 070230
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

AFTER MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HARVEY'S CIRCULATION
EXPOSED...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER IS TUCKED
UNDER THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.  EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...CONFIRMED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF HARVEY ON SATELLITE REMAINS
SURPRISINGLY GOOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH EAST OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE APRROACHING TROUGH MAY
BE AIDING IN HARVEY'S PERSISTENCE IN REMAINING A 50 KT TROPICAL
STORM DUE TO TROUGH INTERACTION.

HARVEY IS FINALLY SUSTAINING A NORTHEAST MOTION AT 040/8. AS THE
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE HARVEY
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...
HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE STORM
MOVES OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT EXTRATROPICAL HARVEY MAY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS IN
EASTERN ATLANTIC.


FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0300Z 34.4N  55.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 35.4N  54.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 37.0N  52.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 38.5N  51.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/0000Z 39.7N  48.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  44.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0000Z 43.0N  38.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/0000Z 44.0N  32.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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