[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 06/2100 UTC WAS NEAR
33.7N 56.0W MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR SURROUNDS HARVEY FROM SOUTH TO WEST. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR ALSO IS PRESENT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 34N-37N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 06/2100 UTC WAS NEAR
19.0N 43.2W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE DEPRESSION IS SUFFERING FROM
WESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN BANDING AND OVERALL THE
SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. THE DEPRESSION IS
GOING TO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WATER TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM RADIUS OF 9N20W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT.  LOW CLOUD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED.  CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 49W-51W.

WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 12N-18N
BETWEEN 85W-91W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N30W 12N40W 8N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 31W-34W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 42W-48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 52W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 2100 UTC...A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N87W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 27N92W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE
NE GULF FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 80W-87W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH.  A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 24N96W.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS S OF THE HIGH FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 93W-97W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR 30N87W.  ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W CUBA
NEAR 22N83W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE ENTIRE
GULF.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SLIGHTLY N INTO ALABAMA IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATES
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W CUBA
NEAR 22N83W MOVING W.  A LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N69W MOVING NW.  THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGHING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N69W.  T.S. HARVEY AND
T.D. NINE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  1024 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N36W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N77W.  CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N69W.  ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE NEAR 25N50W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
FURTHER E NEAR 23N40W THAT IS PRODUCING NW SHEAR OVER T.D.
NINE.  RIDGING IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC N OF 5N AND E
OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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