[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 062032
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE THIS
MORNING TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.
THE ADJUSTED TRACK YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11 AVERAGED OVER
THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL SHEARED WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION ABOUT 90 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN BANDING HOWEVER...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT DID THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE ARE
SOME 35 KT WINDS IN THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH I HAVE NO DVORAK
ESTIMATES HIGHER THAN 25 KT...AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THE DEPRESSION IS GOING TO HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH WILL BE GRADUALLY
INCREASING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL...WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON ON A TRACK THAT ULTIMATELY BENDS TO THE RIGHT THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY.  THE 12Z GFS NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
PARTLY DUE THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
PARTLY TO THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/2100Z 19.0N  43.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 19.6N  44.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.3N  46.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  48.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N  50.3W    35 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 22.8N  53.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  56.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 27.0N  58.0W    50 KT


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