[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 060901
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005

A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE
PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...WHICH SUPPORTED BY AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CONTAINED 40-KT AND 50-KT UNFLAGGED
WIND VECTORS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/06. HARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THE OVERALL
FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND GRADUALLY
COME UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND LIFTS OUT THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE GETS
CAPTURED BY THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS SLIGHTLY INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0900Z 33.3N  56.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 34.2N  56.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 35.6N  55.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 37.2N  53.8W    30 KT
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 39.2N  51.2W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 42.4N  44.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 45.0N  36.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0600Z 48.5N  27.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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