[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 060242
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL BURSTS
OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY. HOWEVER THE WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED AS A RESULT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THE STORM.
AFTERWHICH...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION
AS HARVEY ACCELERATES AND INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES WHILE
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

DESPITE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO PULL HARVEY TO THE
NORTH...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE STORM REMAINS TO THE EAST AROUND
5 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF
MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE EARLIER PERIODS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES HARVEY IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. ONCE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST...A
WESTERLY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE HARVEY TO THE
NORTHEAST.

BASED ON A 2202 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HARVEY...THE 34 KT
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AND INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 32.4N  57.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 33.0N  56.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 34.5N  55.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 36.1N  54.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 38.0N  52.5W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 42.0N  46.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 45.0N  37.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0000Z 47.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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