[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE
FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 05/2100 UTC WAS NEAR
32.6N 57.4 MOVING EAST 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  HARVEY CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CENTER. IT APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED AT
THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL ZONE. HARVEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE
TO SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 33N-35N BETWEEN
53W-58W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 05/2100 UTC WAS NEAR
17.0N 39.1W MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A
VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS ARE
TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER WHERE THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER WITHIN 45 NM
RADIUS OF 17N38W...AND OF 16N41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 82W-85W.

TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 94W JUST
EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 87W-97W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 10N25W 15N40W 10N50W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 15W-18W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 22W-26W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER INLAND
FLORIDA AND S GEORGIA FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N-25N
BETWEEN 85W-89W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N95W.  ANOTHER
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N90W.
A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO S
GEORGIA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-21N
BETWEEN 75W-76W...AND OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-84W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 17N93W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
IS IS W OF 80W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N66W.  CYCLONIC FLOW AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N61W 25N65W
24N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.
SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM THE AZORES S TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS.  RELATIVELY LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALLOWING T.D. NINE TO TAKE A NW TRACK.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N55W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E AT
27N40W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS FURTHER S IN THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC AT 15N38W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
N OF 24N BETWEEN 10W-30W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W
AFRICA FROM 5N-32W E OF 10W.


$$
FORMOSA


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