[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051824
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE
FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 05/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
32.4N 58.2 MOVING EAST 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HARVEY
IS ABOUT 100 NM NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 33N TO 35N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FLOW AROUND HARVEY RUNS FROM 28N61W 24N67W TO
20N74W NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N54W 27N58W 24N66W...AND
DISSIPATING ALONG 24N66W 23N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO
FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS
DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...BETWEEN THE
27N42W 18N45W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE FLOW AROUND
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 05/1500 UTC WAS NEAR
16.4N 37.3W MOVING NORTHWEST 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC OR MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N
TO 17N BETWEEN 35N AND 41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. THE EXISTENCE OF THIS WAVE IS NOT APPARENT IN THE
LOW CLOUD MOVEMENTS ON CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS APPARENT IN THE ISOBARIC PATTERN. THE STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS IN COLOMBIA
FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W TO COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA
INLAND TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N86W MAY BE MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE BROAD SURFACE
ISOBARIC PATTERN AND ONSHORE FLOW RATHER THAN WITH THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG 92W/93W
JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W ARE IN THE AREA OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS EAST OF THE INTERIOR MEXICO MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N15W 11N20W 14N33W...12N38W 10N39W 9N61W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 50W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND
26W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST AFRICA
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN WESTERN MEXICO FROM 30N110W
TO 22N105W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO JUST EAST OF
THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA NEAR
29N81W TO 29N87W TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR 29N98W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 28N95W
26N88W 28N83W. A POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY FORM NEAR 32N89W IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AN EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N65W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 58W AND
73W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE...
ACCOUNTING FOR NOT MUCH DEEP LAYER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN
MEXICO. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TOWARD COASTAL CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS IN
COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W TO COASTAL WESTERN
PANAMA INLAND TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N86W MAY BE MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE BROAD SURFACE ISOBARIC
PATTERN AND ONSHORE FLOW RATHER THAN WITH THE 80W/81W WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FEATURES ARE MORE SEPARATED NOW...DIFFERENT FROM THE SCENARIO OF
24 HOURS AGO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 27N42W TO 18N45W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM BETWEEN 34W AND 50W FOR
THE LENGTH OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM FLORIDA NEAR
29N81W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N76W TO 27N70W. THE
WESTERN PART OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COASTS.
SURFACE RIDGE RUNS THROUGH 34N35W TO 26N51W TO 19N64W. ANOTHER
RIDGE ALSO RUNS FROM 34N35W TO 26N27W TO 16N27W.

$$
MT




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