[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY IS CENTERED NEAR 32.5N 59.0W...OR ABOUT
295 NM E OF BERMUDA...AT 05/0900 UTC MOVING ENE AT 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE STROM REMAINS UNDER W TO SW SHEAR.
CONVECTION IS NE OF THE EXPOSED CENTER WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
32.5N59W-35N56W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 36.1W...OR ABOUT
680 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AT 05/0900 UTC
MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. NINE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CLOUDINESS WHICH CONTINUES
TO SPLITTING THE ITCZ. T.D. NINE IS ON THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE BUT IS APPROACHING A WEAKNESS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER
T.D. NINE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11.5N-15N BETWEEN 35.5W-38W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY DUE TO NO SIGNATURE ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING INTO THE S
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SIGNATURE
CURVATURE IS NOT WELL DEFINED IN THE ATLC BASIN BEING MOSTLY
OVER LAND BUT IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 16N30W...THEN ALONG
11N37W 9N50W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 10N21W 12N20W TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR 12N16W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
75 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 24W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 32W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N GULF N OF
27N ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E FROM E TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON
S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA
CITY TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF TAMPA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...NEAR STATIONARY MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF
24N W OF 84W. THIS IS MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE AND
TRIGGERING THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE UPPER FLOW IS
PRIMARILY W TO SW S OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS ADVECTING
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S
OF 22N INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 94W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WET OVER THE GULF AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE N GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS A RIDGE INTO THE
SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 11W/12N W OF 70W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
CUT-OFF LOW IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N64W WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERING THE AREA E OF 70W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS
PROVIDING DRY AIR THAT COVERS THE SAME AREA...THUS SERIOUSLY
LIMITING CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY. FROM THE NW TO CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO SE
OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N73W WITH DIFFLUENCE TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH
AXIS GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO OVER W CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC TO
THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND
COSTA RICA...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 84W. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...
SMALL...WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE TURKS/CAICOS
ISLANDS NEAR 22N73W AND IS ON THE S SIDE OF THE WESTERLIES WHICH
RUN E OF THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA COAST. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
T.S. HARVEY OUT OF THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHICH IS EXTENDS THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH SW
OF HARVEY WHICH EXTENDS FROM 28N72W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM S OF
THE AXIS. A SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OF
T.S. HARVEY FROM 30N58W 25N64W TO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR
21N73W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N42W WITH FLOW
AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 21N FROM 31W-47W. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH NE OF T.D.
NINE NEAR 19N33W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N30W.
NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ALONG THE NW COAST OF AFRICA
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 21N. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATES THAT THE SAHARAN DUST REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLC S
OF 25N...COVERING T.D. NINE...BUT THE SYSTEM APPEARS ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF BY ENTRAINING MOIST AIR FROM THE S.

$$
WALLACE



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