[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 050247
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
INDICATE HARVEY REMAINING A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM.  EVEN THOUGH
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED...THE LAST FEW
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR MAY BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE STORM.  RECENT SHORTWAVE IR AND MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE
THE CENTER OF HARVEY MAY BE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY
POSITION. WE WILL HOLD OFF SHIFTING THE POSITION SOUTHWARD UNTIL WE
SEE FURTHER CONFIRMATION.

HARVEY IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF
HARVEY. SINCE THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF THE
STORM...HARVEY WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...UNTIL A SECOND TROUGH CARRIES THE STORM RAPIDLY TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

DUE TO THE INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF
HARVEY SEEMS UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS HARVEY AS A
55 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0300Z 32.5N  60.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 32.9N  58.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.4N  57.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 34.1N  56.4W    55 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 35.4N  55.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 38.3N  51.7W    45 KT
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 41.5N  46.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     10/0000Z 45.0N  38.5W    30 KT


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