[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 032030
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005

ON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH HARVEY...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 998 MB.  THERE IS NOW A SMALL
CONVECTIVE BURST GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  THIS WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF LOW-SHEAR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HARVEY TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
36-48 HOURS.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
INTENSIFICATION AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT HARVEY COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE.  THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

HARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
060/9.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY WILL LEAVE THE SYSTEM BEHIND FOR THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THIS COULD CAUSE HARVEY TO MOVE
SLOWLY IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      03/2100Z 31.1N  67.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 31.8N  65.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 32.5N  63.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 33.0N  61.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 33.5N  59.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 34.5N  57.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 37.5N  52.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 40.5N  47.0W    30 KT


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