[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 68.2W AT
03/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 250 NM/405 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST 8 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS SW OF THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER...BUT IS CLOSER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE UPPER LOW IS
PRODUCING S SHEAR THUS THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED N AND E OF
THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 21N65W-30N63W-32N66W-31N69W. A SMALL
BURST OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS JUST W OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 30N69.5W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 17N WITH A 1010 MB
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N...MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD LOW/MID
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 20N MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
AFRICAN DUST. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 19N MOVING W 10
KT. CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS. THIS WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER LOW THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO S OF
10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-19N
BETWEEN 78W-82W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 14N21W 10N32W 9N40W 10N49W
8N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 24W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N FROM 18W-22W AND WITHIN 75/90
NM OF LINE 9N29W-7N34W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 6N-13N E OF 30W AND FROM
6N-10N FROM 30W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER N MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS TO NEAR 29N90W. THIS IS
ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO INTO THE W GULF
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 22N W OF 94W IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. MID/UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY E TO JUST OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE W ATLC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING
THE E GULF N OF 23N E OF 88W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N GULF
COAST STATES IS GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 27N FROM 90W-93W AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST FROM
THE FLORIDA KEYS AROUND TO NE TEXAS. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN IS BEING DOMINATED BY AND MID/UPPER LOW IN THE W AND
AND A MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE E. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
19N80W AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 77W AND THE UPPER HIGH JUST N OF
PUERTO RICO WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 77W. ALTHOUGH DIFFLUENCE
IS EVIDENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF THESE UPPER SYSTEMS...ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 78W-82W...MORE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES ARE
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF
10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA FROM 79W TO THE COSTA RICA BORDER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 87W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL/
WESTERN ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY E TO
JUST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
N OF 24N W OF 76W. WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LOW IS JUST SW OF T.D.
EIGHT NEAR 29N70W KEEPING S SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE SW
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE SURFACE LOW...DRY AIR/MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE DRAWN INTO T.D. EIGHT AND FORCING THE
CONVECTION FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG
26N63W TO BEYOND 32N62W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
THE UPPER LOW TIED TO T.D. EIGHT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND
ALONG THE ADJACENT N COASTS. DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 32N43W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N48W TO A MID/UPPER LOW...THAT IS
BECOMING CUT-OFF...ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N55W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A 1016 MB
SURFACE LOW JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N43W TO 26N48W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 24N50W 27N42W TO BEYOND 32N39W. REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
BENIGN...DOMINATED BY A MID/UPPER HIGH W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 16N28W WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 37W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CAN ONLY SUPPORT LOW
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. AFRICAN DUST HAS NOW CLEARED THE COAST AND
IS S OF 25N FROM 20W-40W...NOT AS DENSE AS THE PREVIOUS SURGE
THAT IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC WHICH IS S OF 23N W OF 40W INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
NE ATLC NEAR 32N32W SW ALONG 26N43W TO A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 24N55W.

$$
WALLACE



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