[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE.  A NEW
OUTFLOW OF SAHARAN DUST IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
26W-29W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW CLOUDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
TRINIDAD FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED AROUND THE WAVE
AXIS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO INLAND
COLOMBIA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 74W-76W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF GUATEMALA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS W OF 87W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 8N40W 8N50W 10N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION DUE TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 15W-20W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 7N-10N BETWEEN 29W-35W...AND FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 35W-49W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS ALONG 30N83W 29N95W.  CLUSTERS
OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN
82W-93W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 90W.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR
28N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 90W.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR THE SE FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 80W-87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURES IN THE
CARIBBEAN.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
AIR MASS CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICO
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO
RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 65W-68W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 76W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N67W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF
76W.  EXPECT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N69W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE LOW FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 66W-70W.  A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS
OVER THE CENTER ATLANTIC NEAR 34N43W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO
32N40W 24N47W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM  E OF THE
TROUGH N OF 26N.   A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR
39N27W.   A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 23N37W.  AFRICAN DUST
PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC S OF 30N E OF 76W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
26N73W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 68W-76W.  UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER AS MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 25N55W.  FURTHER E ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 32N44W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW INTO THE
TROPICS NEAR 12N52W.  THE WESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH HAMPER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 40W-55W.  AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
18N25W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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