[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011706
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11N. A NEW SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST HAS COME OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST AND IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WELL DEFINED WAVE WITH INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED.
AFRICAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO W AFRICA AND S OF 30N
MOVING W WITH THE WAVE. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 49W-56W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND IS INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 63W-65W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK WAVE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 82W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 10N23W 8N30W 7N40W 12N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL WAVES...PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 13W-23W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS ALONG 31N85W 29N90W 29N84W.  LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 83W-90W.  WINDS ARE LIGHT
FROM THE NE N OF THE TROUGH AND...AND ARE LIGHT FROM THE SW S OF
THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N89W.  ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N97W.  A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.
ALL THREE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS HAVE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  EXPECT
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED S OF
CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 74W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N80W.
CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS W OF 70W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 70W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
PROGRESS W IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 23N70W.  PATCHES
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 66W-69W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FURTHER E FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 62W-66W.  ANOTHER WEAK 1014 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N45W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N49W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 38W-42W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS
NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS AT 36N27W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO
19N37W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TWO SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AT 27N71W AND 32N57W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N44W.  A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS S TO NEAR 13N48W.  THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA ARE
DOMINATED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 20N20W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 30W FROM 8N-32N.

$$
FORMOSA





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