[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 30 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.8N 47.7W AT 30/1500 UTC
MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 31W-33W BETWEEN 47W-49W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 40W S OF 15N
MOVING W 5-10 KT. WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE E OF
THE WAVE AXIS. WESTERLY SHEAR IS PREVENTING ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 37W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THIS
WAVE HAS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOVE IT.  A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
48W-55W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N10W 8N34W 9N50W 11N74W 9N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
16W-22W...AND FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 24W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 26W-30W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 79W-82W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 31N84W TO 28N90W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
FRONT.  WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N 95W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N75W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 93W-97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N68W
13N73W MOVING W AT 10 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 69W-75W.
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA DUE TO ITCZ
CONVERGENCE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SE OF JAMAICA NEAR
16N75W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 67W-82W.  DRY
SUBSIDENCE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 75W-82W...WHILE CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NE...E OF THE CENTER FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN
62W-75W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W.  WEAK
RIDGING EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.  T.S. LISA IS
FURTHER E AT 32.8N 47.7W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF LISA ALONG
32N42W 22N50W 19N54W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS.  A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
41N27W.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO 25N35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N63W.
A PAIR OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
25N52W...AND 32N50W.  THE LATTER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
PRODUCING SHEAR OVER LISA AND LIMITING CONVECTION.  A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N37W.
ANOTHER PAIR OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT
36N24W... AND 32N7W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG
40W...AND 51W.  THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W IS BEING HAMPERED BY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W
IS PROSPERING UNDER A FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND HAS
ABUNDANT CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 14N13W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
ARE CENTERED AT 19N35W...AND 13N40W.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 11N51W.

$$
FORMOSA




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