[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 301432
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING REVEALS THAT LISA IS MAINTAINING
A VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AS LISA MOVES
OVER A TONGUE OF COOL WATER LEFT BY THE UPWELLING CAUSED BY
HURRICANE KARL. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5 SUGGESTING WINDS OF ONLY 35 KNOTS...
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SUPPORT WINDS OF AT LEAST
55 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WILL DECREASE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 55 KT. BECAUSE LISA IS OVER COOLER WATERS A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

LISA IS MOVING 340 DEGREES OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...LISA SHOULD SOON BEGIN
MOVING NORTH AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION
OF JEANNE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE EXCEPT A
LITTLE TO LEFT AT 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/1500Z 32.8N  47.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 34.2N  48.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 36.7N  48.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 39.3N  46.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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