[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 300837
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2004

ALTHOUGH THE EYE FEATURE REMAINS...DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
CIRCULATION IS DIMINISHING...AS LISA MOVES OVER 26C...79F WATERS.
DVORAK NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...BUT I WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT
60 KT FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS.  THE
SHEAR WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE WATERS WILL
COOL ONLY SLOWLY...SO THERE WOULD BE SOME CHANCE FOR LISA TO
BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH SHOULD THERE BE A RENEWED
CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CORE.  NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BY
WHICH TIME LISA SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL
CIRCULATION OF JEANNE.  GIVEN THE RECENT MARKED DECLINE IN
CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A FASTER DECAY
THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/10. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS THE LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTH...LISA IS EXPECTED
TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GET PICKED UP BY THE
APPROACHING REMNANTS OF JEANNE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR TERMINATING THE TRACK A LITTLE
SOONER.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 32.5N  47.0W    60 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 33.8N  47.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 35.6N  47.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 37.7N  46.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO REMNANTS OF JEANNE


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