[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 281422
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW CLOSER TO
THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. RECENT
VISIBLE IMAGES ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT LISA MAY
BE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION.
IN FACT..THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE.  IF THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH
ADDITIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL
POSITION WILL BE ADJUSTED AND THE INTENSITY WILL HAVE TO BE
INCREASED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.  AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER KEEP
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR WHICH PREVAILED OVER LISA...WILL RELAX AS AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW
SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LISA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA
SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. DURING
THIS PERIOD...LISA COULD MAKE A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THERAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD FINALLY TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS VERY CLOSELY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/1500Z 25.0N  47.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 26.6N  47.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  47.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  47.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W    60 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  47.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 39.0N  44.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 41.0N  38.0W    50 KT


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net