[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON 27 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE CENTER NEAR 32.2N 83.7W HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR NEAR ABOUT 35 MILES S
OF MACON GEORGIA...AT 27/1800 UTC MOVING NORTH 10 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME EASTERN GEORGIA
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVE WELL
INLAND OVER GEORGIA NORTH TO NORTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL STORM LISA CENTER NEAR 20.8N 46.2W...OR ABOUT 1040
MILES/1685 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES..AT
27/1500 UTC MOVING NORTH 5 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LISA REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND MOVES NORTH-NORTHWEST...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED NE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
41W- 46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 130 NM
E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 04N-18N BETWEEN 13W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ALONG
39W/40W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A WEAK BROAD
CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WAVE REMAINS
DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL ALONG 10N16W  05N30W
04N40W 05N50W 11N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 04N-18N BETWEEN 13W-28W AND FROM1N-7N BETWEEN 30W-40W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
JEANNE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE WEAKENING
FURTHER OVER GEORGIA.  MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N88W  S TO THE THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CHANNEL.  MODERATED/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS FROM
FLORIDA W TO 93W. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
MINATITLAN IN MEXICO ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH RIDGING
EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO NEAR 27N92W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO... S OF 24N AND W
OF 96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
RIDGING FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE GULF EXTENDS INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR 83W.  A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
IS CENTERED 16N81W...ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY S OF 13N
BETWEEN 83W-73W.  ELSEWHERE... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PUSHES ITS
WAY SOUTH FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SOUTH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO
VENEZUELA.  WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS N FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS...NW TO THE US COAST...E TO THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N51W.  A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING ALONG 30N50W 23N62W
19N63W THEN SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN.  SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM NORTH OF THE AREA TO NEAR 30N38W 25N51W...ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH.  ELSEWHERE TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ...A PAIR
OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LOWS WITH AN SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING BETWEEN
THEM FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...FROM 20N30W
TO 32N14W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
14N46W WITH DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEST OF 43W. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 30W...ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS SPORADIC AND LESS
INTENSE.

$$
JP/MN







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