[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 270052
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-270400-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
804 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

...JEANNE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO DESTIN...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DIXIE AND
LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND BEN
HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER AND LOWNDES COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF BOTH THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER AND THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
DESTIN. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT FOR DIXIE AND
LAFAYETTE COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND BEN
HILL...IRWIN...BERRIEN...LANIER AND LOWNDES COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER AND THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTH OF BRONSON FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CROSS CITY AND 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE. JEANNE WAS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND JEANNE WILL
PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB OR 28.88 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR JEANNE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
AND GUSTS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BIG BEND AND APALACHEE
BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BIG BEND DURING THE EVENING. ALSO...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT SOME INLAND AND COASTAL LOCATIONS AT 8 PM
EDT FOLLOW.

NWS TALLAHASSEE...15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 24 MPH.
TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT...16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 29 MPH.
CROSS CITY...32 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 41 MPH.
VALDOSTA...31 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 39 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 43 MPH.
CEDAR KEY...29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 38 MPH.
BUOY 42036...36 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
C TOWER (100 FEET HIGH)...39 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 44 MPH.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
NOW INCLUDES MOST OF THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER.
THEREFORE...THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
CAN EXPECT LOCALLY 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
WESTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA CAN EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES WHILE
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES.
HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STORM TRACK SHIFTS FARTHER WEST OR IF THE
FORWARD SPEED DECREASES...THESE TOTALS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER.
AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE AT LEAST 5 INCHES OF RAIN CAN EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST AREA RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
MAJOR FLOODING. EVEN IF THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE
OBSERVED...FURTHER RISES TO THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER SUWANNEE WOULD FLOOD EVEN
LATER. THE AUCILLA RIVER ALREADY IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...HOWEVER...
AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR VALDOSTA RESPONDS VERY QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...SO THESE TWO RIVERS WILL BE THE MOST CLOSELY WATCHED
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. INTERESTS ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH JEANNE CURRENTLY HUGGING CLOSE TO THE COAST...A MINOR STORM
SURGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTY COASTLINES. AT THIS
TIME THE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 TO 5 FEET.
HOWEVER...THE DURATION AND FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE QUITE
SHORT. SHOULD JEANNE TAKE A SUDDEN JOG FARTHER TO THE WEST...THESE
SURGE VALUES COULD BE HIGHER. THE SURGE WILL ALSO PROPAGATE UP THE
SUWANNEE RIVER AS FAR INLAND AS WILCOX...RESULTING IN RISES ALONG THE
SUWANNEE RIVER OF 2 TO 3 FEET WITHIN 10 HOURS AFTER JEANNE PASSES
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. BASED ON THE CURRENT
PROJECTED PATH OF JEANNE...THIS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RESIDENTS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LOCAL TIDES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

AUCILLA RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 211 AM AND 219 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE (DEADMAN BAY)...
HIGH TIDE AT 214 AM AND 205 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 816 AM AND 851 PM.

SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 203 AM AND 154 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE AT 1015 PM AND 958 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 428 AM AND 350 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
LOW TIDE AT 619 PM MONDAY AND 454 AM TUESDAY.
HIGH TIDE AT 1032 AM MONDAY AND 1159 PM MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE INITIAL OFFSHORE FLOW...RIP CURRENTS ARE NOT A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM DEPARTS...ONSHORE FLOW WOULD
CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT (OR NORTHEASTERN SECTION) OF THE
STORM. WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA NOW FALL UNDER THAT
QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THEREFORE...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM
EDT. A MINIMAL THREAT EXISTS FURTHER TO THE WEST. ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE VERY CLOSELY...AS
THIS THREAT MAY STILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER WEST. AS FAR AS TIMING IS
CONCERNED...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXTEND FROM SUNDAY
LATE EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON JEANNE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY MIDNIGHT EDT.

$$

22-BARRY


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