[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 262032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER LAND AND PEAK
DOPPLER VELOCITIES/VAD WIND PROFILES FROM THE TAMPA WSR-88D RADAR
SUGGESTED 55-60 KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20Z AND THE 21Z ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT.  THE RADAR PRESENTATION IS SLOWLY
DETERIORATING...BUT JEANNE STILL HAS A LARGE AND STRONG WIND
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  NONETHELESS...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE ITS TOLL AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DROP BELOW
STORM STRENGTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH ABOUT DAY 3.  JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING A
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
COAST.  A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
1-2 DAYS WITH THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK PREDICTION AT DAYS
4-5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED AND SHIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTHWARD.  THIS IS BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING THAT JEANNE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MIGHT NOT ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS
EARLIER INDICATED.  IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
PARTIALLY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...SLOW SOMEWHAT...AND
START MOVING MORE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/2100Z 28.8N  82.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 30.0N  83.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 31.9N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 34.2N  82.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 36.5N  78.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 40.5N  69.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 43.0N  60.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/1800Z 44.0N  50.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
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