[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 261521
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-261900-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1059 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO DESTIN...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF BOTH THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER AND THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
DESTIN. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...FOR
ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER AND THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. THIS INCLUDES THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 30 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPA FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 138 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CROSS CITY AND 224 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE.
JEANNE WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JEANNE TO NEAR TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 1 PM
EDT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AND IT SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER
TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINED 970 MB OR
28.64 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR JEANNE...TROPICAL STORM GUSTS
WERE ALREADY AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND APALACHEE BAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO IMPACT THIS SAME AREA SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BIG BEND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS AND
LIKELY WINDS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MID AFTERNOON. WITH JEANNE SLOWING DOWN...IT
IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A LONGER TIME THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THUS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY NOW SPREAD
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT SOME INLAND AND COASTAL LOCATIONS AT 11 AM
EDT FOLLOW.

NWS TALLAHASSEE...7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 14 MPH.
TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT...17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 24 MPH.
PANAMA CITY 21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
VALDOSTA...24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 32 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH.
CEDAR KEY...16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH.
BUOY 42036...33 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
C TOWER (100 FEET HIGH)...33 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 37 MPH.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING NOW INCLUDES MOST OF THE AREA TO THE EAST OF
THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. THEREFORE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES CAN EXPECT
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE RIVER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STORM TRACK
CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR IF THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASES...
THESE TOTALS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER. AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN CAN EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST AREA RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
MAJOR FLOODING. EVEN IF THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE
OBSERVED...FURTHER RISES TO THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER SUWANNEE WOULD FLOOD EVEN
LATER. THE AUCILLA RIVER ALREADY IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...HOWEVER...
AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR VALDOSTA RESPONDS VERY QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...SO THESE 2 RIVERS WILL BE THE MOST CLOSELY WATCHED
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. INTERESTS ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH JEANNE NOW EXPECTED TO HUG THE COAST OR EMERGE IN THE EXTREME
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM...A MINOR STORM SURGE IS
NOW EXPECTED FOR THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTY COASTLINES. AT THIS TIME
THE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 TO 4
FEET...HOWEVER...SINCE THE DURATION AND FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL
BE QUITE SHORT. SHOULD JEANNE EMERGE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND TRACK
FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THESES SURGE VALUES COULD BE
HIGHER. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LOCAL TIDES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

AUCILLA RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 211 AM AND 219 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE (DEADMAN BAY)...
HIGH TIDE AT 214 AM AND 205 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 816 AM AND 851 PM.

SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 203 AM AND 154 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE AT 1015 PM AND 958 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 428 AM AND 350 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
LOW TIDE AT 634 PM AND 619 PM.
HIGH TIDE AT 1032 AM AND 1159 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE INITIAL OFFSHORE FLOW...RIP CURRENTS ARE NOT A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM DEPARTS...ONSHORE FLOW WOULD
CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT (OR NORTHEASTERN SECTION) OF THE
STORM. WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE FURTHER WESTWARD...EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY NOW
FALL UNDER THAT REGION OF THE STORM. THEREFORE...A SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS...WITH A MUCH LESSER
THREAT FURTHER TO THE WEST. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE VERY CLOSELY...AS THIS THREAT MAY STILL SHIFT
A BIT FURTHER WEST. AS FAR AS TIMING IS  CONCERNED...THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXTEND FROM  SUNDAY LATE EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON JEANNE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 3 PM EDT.

24-BLOCK
$$





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net