[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 261000
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-261230-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
547 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
TO DESTIN...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND
COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS EN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER...WHICH INCLUDES THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
DESTIN. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS EN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...AND THE INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA
RIVER...WHICH INCLUDES THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES EAST OF
SEBRING FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. JEANNE WAS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE
WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF
JEANNE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA LATER
TODAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR JEANNE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND APALACHEE BAY THIS MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BIG BEND DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE NOW EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH JEANNE NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM FOR A LONGER TIME THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAY NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT SOME INLAND AND COASTAL LOCATIONS AT 5 AM
EDT FOLLOW.

NWS TALLAHASSEE...9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH.
TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT...10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
APALACHICOLA...17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 23 MPH.
PERRY...15 MPH.
CROSS CITY...16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 28.
KEATON BEACH...10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
CEDAR KEY...20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
BUOY 42036...31 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
C TOWER (100 FEET HIGH)...32 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 36 MPH.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE CONTINUING TO SHIFT TO THE WEST...THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING NOW INCLUDES MOST OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. THEREFORE...THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES CAN EXPECT
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 1 TO 3 INCH TOTALS
EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE RIVER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STORM TRACK
CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST OR IF THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASES...
THESE TOTALS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER. AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN CAN EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST AREA RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
MAJOR FLOODING. EVEN IF THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE
OBSERVED...FURTHER RISES TO THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER WOULD NOT OCCUR
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER SUWANNEE WOULD FLOOD EVEN
LATER. THE AUCILLA RIVER ALREADY IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...HOWEVER...
AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER NEAR VALDOSTA RESPONDS VERY QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...SO THESE 2 RIVERS WILL BE THE MOST CLOSELY WATCHED
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. INTERESTS ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH JEANNE NOW EXPECTED TO EMERGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
A TROPICAL STORM...A MINOR STORM SURGE IS NOW EXPECTED FOR THE
TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTY COASTLINES. AT THIS TIME THE SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 TO 4 FEET...HOWEVER...SINCE THE
DURATION AND FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE QUITE SHORT. SHOULD
JEANNE EMERGE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND TRACK FURTHER WEST THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THESES SURGE VALUES COULD BE HIGHER.
THEREFORE...RESIDENTS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LOCAL TIDES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

AUCILLA RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 211 AM AND 219 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE (DEADMAN BAY)...
HIGH TIDE AT 214 AM AND 205 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 816 AM AND 851 PM.

SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE AT 203 AM AND 154 PM.
LOW TIDE AT 805 AM AND 840 PM.

APALACHICOLA...
LOW TIDE AT 1015 PM AND 958 AM.
HIGH TIDE AT 428 AM AND 350 PM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
LOW TIDE AT 634 PM AND 619 PM.
HIGH TIDE AT 1032 AM AND 1159 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE INITIAL OFFSHORE FLOW...RIP CURRENTS ARE NOT A MAJOR
CONCERN TODAY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM DEPARTS...ONSHORE FLOW WOULD
CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN LANDFALLING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT (OR NORTHEASTERN SECTION) OF THE
STORM. WITH THE TRACK OF JEANNE CONTINUING TO SHIFT FURTHER
WESTWARD...EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY NOW FALL UNDER THAT REGION OF THE STORM.
THEREFORE...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVER THESE
AREAS...WITH A MUCH LESSER THREAT FURTHER TO THE WEST. ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE VERY CLOSELY...AS
THIS THREAT MAY STILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER WEST. AS FAR AS TIMING IS
CONCERNED...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL EXTEND FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON JEANNE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 800 AM EDT.

$$

17-GOULD


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