[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 260258
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

THE EYE IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.  ON
RADAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AN INNER EYEWALL WAS OBSERVED
TO DISSIPATE.  JEANNE HAS A LARGE 40 N MI DIAMETER EYE...WITH A
LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...ABOUT 45 N MI.  THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN PREVENTING ANY ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE.  IN FACT...SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE 100 KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE...HOWEVER THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET FINISHED ITS
SURVEY OF THE HURRICANE.

JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JEANNE SHOULD BE ACCELERATING IN THE WESTERLIES AND LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  THIS FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND
THE GFS TRACK.

THE VERO BEACH FCMP TOWER JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH
WITH A GUST TO 104 MPH.

WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD OCCUR AS FAR AS 100 MILES INLAND
ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      26/0300Z 27.2N  80.0W   100 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  81.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.2N  82.9W    45 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 31.0N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 38.0N  75.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 42.0N  65.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     01/0000Z 45.0N  54.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net