[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 251525
HLSMLB
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
252200-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1125 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JEANNE HEADING FOR FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT
AUGUSTINE WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...
...AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL
INTERIOR COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN
BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...
ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN
AND OKEECHOBEE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA CITY TO SAINT
AUGUSTINE...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM MARTIN TO VOLUSIA. THE HURRICANE WARNING INCLUDES LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL
INTERIOR COUNTIES...INCLUDING LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA...
AND OKEECHOBEE.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES IN
ANTICIPATION OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JEANNE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES EAST
OF STUART FLORIDA.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A FLORIDA
LANDFALL NEAR MIDNIGHT BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND VERO BEACH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF COMPLETING ALL PREPAREDNESS
ACTIONS FOR JEANNE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST LENGTHY STATEMENT OF
PREPAREDNESS ADVICE. NOW THAT THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS BEING TRACKED
BY NWS RADAR...THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO SPECIFIC IMPACTS OF JEANNE AND
MORE SPECIFIC ADVICE AS THE STORM APPROACHES. NOW IS THE TIME TO PICK
YOUR SPOT TO RIDE OUT THE STORM. AN INTERIOR ROOM WITH NO WINDOWS IN
A WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSE OUTSIDE OF THE EVACUATION ZONE IS BEST. HAVE
A BATTERY OPERATED NOAA WEATHER AND AM AND FM RADIOS WITH YOU TO
RECEIVE CRITICAL UPDATES DURING THE APPROACH OF JEANNE IF THE POWER
GOES OUT. HAVE MATTRESSES AND PILLOWS FOR COMFORT AND PROTECTION.

...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON OVER MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES...AND THEN SPREAD
NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND WEST INTO THE INTERIOR. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH VERO BEACH AND MELBOURNE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND ORLANDO..SANFORD...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OVER
MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES IN THE EVENING SATURDAY...ALSO
SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND WEST INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT.

WITH WINDS OF CATEGORY THREE FORCE...EXTENSIVE WIND DAMAGE OF
STRUCTURES IS LIKELY WHERE THE EYEWALL COMES ASHORE. A MUCH LARGER
AREA WILL BE EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL SEE SCATTERED LARGE TREES FALL...LARGE DEBRIS BLOCKING ROADWAYS
AND KNOCKING DOWN POWER LINES. LARGE SIGNS WILL BE EASILY BENT OR
BLOWN DOWN. ALSO...SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHICH AREA WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THE WIND DAMAGE FROM JEANNE. BE PREPARED.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE SURGE WATERS OF 4 TO 6 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WITHIN NARROWING INLETS...LOCALIZED SURGE
WATERS NEAR 8 FEET MAY OCCUR.

THE STORM SURGE THREAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE HIGH SINCE EFFECTS
WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT THE DUNES ARE IN A HIGHLY
WEAKENED STATE. MANY BEACHFRONT PROPERTIES HAVE ALREADY SUFFERED
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AND EROSION...MAKING THEM VERY VULNERABLE TO
FURTHER DAMAGE. INUNDATION OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONE BY SEA WATER
IS POSSIBLE WITH SURGE AND WAVES BREACHING THE WEAKENED DUNES. NEAR
SHORE ROADWAYS AND STRUCTURES ARE AT RISK. PROPERTIES AROUND INLETS
AND ADJACENT CANALS WILL ALSO BE VULNERABLE TO INUNDATION AS WATER
BACKS UP.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...THE LAKE LEVEL IS CURRENTLY 15.8 FEET. WINDS
WITH JEANNE WILL FIRST PUSH LAKE WATER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SIDES...RAISING WATER LEVELS THERE TO AS HIGH AS 21 FEET. WATER
LEVELS WILL INCREASE FURTHER...TO AS HIGH AS 24 FEET...ALONG THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDES OF THE LAKE.


...FLOOD IMPACTS...
THE FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS EXTREME. AS A RESULT...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES.
THE WATER TABLE IS ALREADY HIGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO
COPIOUS RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER...INCLUDING HURRICANES CHARLEY
AND FRANCES. MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVE STANDING WATER...AND IN SOME
CASES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER...PROPERTIES ARE
ALREADY UNDER WATER.

BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK
OF THE CENTER OF JEANNE. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE PRE-EXISTING FLOODING
CONDITIONS...AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS HIGHLY LIKELY IN MANY AREAS.
BLOCKAGE OF STORM DRAINS...STREAMS...CANALS AND OTHER NATURAL AND
MAN MADE RETENTION AREAS MAY ALSO AGGRAVATE THE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT AS THESE HAVE VERY LITTLE ROOM TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF.

THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER WHICH IS ALREADY IN FLOOD CAN EXPECT ADDITIONAL
RISES...WITH MAJOR FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED OVER THE SAINT JOHNS BASIN IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...
AN INITIAL RISE IN THE WATER LEVEL NEAR DELAND...ABOVE LAKE HARNEY...
AND NEAR SANFORD...WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. THEN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RIVER LEVELS WILL RESPOND TO THE
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE IS MODERATE. AS WITH ANY
HURRICANE...THERE ALWAYS EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
TYPICALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER
RAINBANDS IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT. THEREFORE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL ALTER THE TIMING AND DISTRIBUTION OF THE
TORNADO THREAT. AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ALSO...INNER RAINBAND AND EYEWALL TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED TO ADD TO THE WIND DAMAGE IN VICINITY OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
VESSELS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AS THE MARINE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH
JEANNE WILL BE EXTREME. HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS ALREADY BUFFETING
THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL ONLY GET WORSE AS JEANNE APPROACHES. SEAS
MAY GROW TO OVER 20 FEET LATER TODAY WITH INTRACOASTAL WATERS
BECOMING VERY ROUGH. WINDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 100 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS...AS JEANNE APPROACHES THE COAST BETWEEN COCOA
BEACH BEACH AND JUPITER INLET.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM
TODAY...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

HAGEMEYER

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