[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 251508
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
EYE IS OVER MARSH HARBOR ON THE ABACO ISLAND. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE
AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 127 KNOTS.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING ACROSS THE HURRICANE AND
REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 113 KNOT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES JEANNE A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

JEANNE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER JEANNE TOWARD
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF
JEANNE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS WHICH CONSISTENTLY TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/1500Z 26.6N  77.6W   100 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 27.0N  79.5W   110 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  81.5W    75 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 29.5N  82.5W    45 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 31.0N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 35.0N  78.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 40.0N  67.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     30/1200Z 46.0N  54.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER


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