[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 251313
HLSTAE
FLZ015-017>019-027>029-034-GAZ127>131-145>148-157>161-GMZ700-755-775-
251605-

HURRICANE JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST
FROM THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. AN INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND INLAND COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST...OR ABOUT OVER MARSH
HARBOUR...ABACO ISLAND OR ABOUT 190 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JEANNE WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
LATER TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...OR 28.26 INCHES OF MERCURY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR JEANNE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND GUSTS COULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT...TORWARD MORNING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE GULF WATERS
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
DURING THIS TIME. FOR THIS REASON...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THESE AREAS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
SINCE JEANNE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVE ALONG
AT A STEADY PACE...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN AT
THIS TIME. THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
COUNTIES CAN EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3
INCHES...WITH ONE TO TWO INCH TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG
BEND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM TRACK
SHIFTS JUST 50 TO 100 MILES TO THE WEST...THESE TOTALS COULD EASILY
BE DOUBLED. FOR NOW...ONLY NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED WITH JEANNE.

MOST AREA RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THIS MUCH RAIN WITHOUT
FLOODING. EVEN IF THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE TOTALS ARE OBSERVED...
FURTHER RISES TO THE MIDDLE SUWANNEE RIVER WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER SUWANNEE WOULD FLOOD EVEN LATER. THE
STORM WOULD HAVE TO TRACK AS FAR WEST AS TALLAHASSEE FOR THERE TO BE
SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE SAINT MARKS...AUCILLA AND WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVERS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE AUCILLA RIVER AT LAMONT
IS ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THE WITHLACOOCHEE NEAR VALDOSTA
RESPONDS QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAINS. INTERESTS ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
SINCE THE STORM WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS LOCALLY
WILL BE OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...AS THE STORM LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TO THE WEST AT AROUND 20 MPH ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD CAUSE
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST OF TAYLOR AND
DIXIE COUNTIES. RESIDENTS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LOCAL TIDES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

AUCILLA RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...211 AM AND 219 PM.
LOW TIDE...805 AM AND 840 PM.

STEINHATCHEE RIVER ENTRANCE (DEADMAN BAY)...
HIGH TIDE...214 AM AND 205 PM.
LOW TIDE...816 AM AND 851 PM.

SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...203 AM AND 154 PM.
LOW TIDE...805 AM AND 840 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
DUE TO THE INITIAL OFFSHORE FLOW...RIP CURRENTS ARE NOT A MAJOR
CONCERN ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE STORM DEPARTS...ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD CREATE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS JEANNE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA...THAT PART OF THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MINIMAL FOR NORTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND THE WIDESPREAD TORNADO OUTBREAK THAT OCCURRED WITH
IVAN WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE YOUR HOME SHOULD BE STARTED NOW WHILE THE
WEATHER IS STILL GOOD. IT MAY BE DANGEROUS TO WORK OUTSIDE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BLOW LOOSE ITEMS AROUND
CREATING A HAZARD. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD
FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS AFFECTED BY TROPICAL
STORM WINDS. CHECK THAT YOUR BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING.
HAVE FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND ALONG WITH SPARE BATTERIES.  ALSO...BE SURE
TO HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM'S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT
POWER.

IF YOU OWN A BOAT...MOVE IT TO A SAFE LOCATION.

ALL PEOPLE THE POTENTIAL PATH OF HURRICANE JEANNE INCLUDING NORTH
FLORIDA... THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHCENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND ADVICE OR ORDERS FROM
LOCAL AUTHORITIES. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO
STATIONS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON JEANNE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY NOON EDT TODAY

11-GOREE

$$

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