[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI 24 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 4 PM CDT...21Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
31.0 NORTH LATITUDE AND 94.9 WEST LONGITUDE...OR APPROXIMATELY
HALFWAY BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE AND LUFKIN TEXAS AND NEARLY
STATIONARY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1014 MB OR 29.95 INCHES OF MERCURY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF
2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC OR FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER NFDTCPAT4/WTNT34 OR TCMAT4/WTNT24 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

HURRICANE JEANNE AT 24/2100 UTC IS NEAR 26.4N 73.5W OR ABOUT 225
MILES/360 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...MOVING WEST 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 85 KT GUSTS 105 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
OR NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. JEANNE IS
BEING GUIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST... MOVING IT WESTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
SURROUNDS JEANNE BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO WEAKEN IT MUCH. JEANNE IS
EXPECTED TO GO OVER WARMER W ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE COMING 24
HOURS THAT MAY INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 71W-77W.

HURRICANE KARL AT 24/2100 UTC IS NEAR 47.3N 40.4W...OR ABOUT
935 MILES...1505 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  MOVING NORTH 35
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 350 MILES. KARL IS NOT
QUITE YET EXTRATROPICAL BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SO IN 6 HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 48N-53N
BETWEEN 38W-46W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA AT 24/2100 UTC IS NEAR 14.4N 44.4W...OR
ABOUT 1365 MILES...2195 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 KT GUSTS 40
KT. LISA HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER DUE TO NORTHERLY SHEAR.  ALL
CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. THIS WAVE IS TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHEAR THE
WAVE TO SOME DEGREE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 24W-27W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FURTHER S FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 19N10W 13N24W 14N40W 11N55W 12N70W
10N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-84W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N94W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN
90W-98W.  ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AT 20N87W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO
BEYOND 32N88W.  ON THE SURFACE...T.D. IVAN IS INLAND OVER E
TEXAS NEAR 31N95W WITH 1014 MB.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 93W-95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W DUE TO THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N87W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-85W. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR 38N73W N OF
HURRICANE JEANNE.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 27N
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 32W-40W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 20W-32W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS
TROUGH AT 30N27W...AND 20N28W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 21N5W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-32N E
OF 20W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
... AND IS NW OF T.D. LISA AT 15N53W.

$$
FORMOSA


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