[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 242041
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

THERE ARE JUST SOME VERY SMALL SLIVERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING
NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NEAR OR JUST UNDER
65 KT AND THE 18Z WIND SPEED IS SET AT 65 KNOTS.  KARL IS NOW OVER
WATER LESS THAN 20 DEGREES C AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
KARL IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/26.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND MERGE WITH
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/2100Z 47.3N  40.4W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 51.0N  38.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 56.0N  32.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 60.5N  21.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 64.0N   6.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     27/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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