[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 242029
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER
OF LISA REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
18Z DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT 30 KT
AND LISA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK TODAY...
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING THE INITIAL MOTION
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND A TRACK OF
285/9 KT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTANT IN FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY.  IN
THE LONGER RANGE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LISA WILL NOT GET
PICKED UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ARE NOW FORECASTING A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED
WESTWARD BUT REMAINS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
AT 96 AND 120 HOURS AND LEANS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION.

NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AS LISA IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES LISA A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/2100Z 14.4N  44.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 14.9N  45.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  46.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  47.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.7N  47.6W    50 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 23.8N  47.8W    60 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N  47.8W    60 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 31.0N  47.8W    60 KT


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