[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 241449
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

KARL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CORE OF REASONABLY COLD
CONVECTION...SO WE CANNOT QUITE DECLARE KARL EXTRATROPICAL YET. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T/CI
NUMBERS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. KARL WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COLDER WATERS AND ANY BAROCLINIC INFLUX OF ENERGY SHOULD BE OVER
NOW...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KARL LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/35...AS KARL IS WHIPPING AROUND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  KARL SHOULD DISENGAGE FROM
THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND AS IT DOES SO SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/1500Z 44.4N  40.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 48.9N  39.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 53.7N  36.1W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 58.7N  28.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 62.0N  14.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     27/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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