[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 240847
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004

KARL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH COMPLETED
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A POORLY
ORGANIZED...RAGGED...LOW CENTER AND AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE ABSENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION...ALL INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL PHASE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DVORAK CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DOWN TO
55 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A
GENEROUS 75 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS.

INITIAL MOTION IS AN ACCELERATING 020/26. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING IN A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
IS EXPECTED AS THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS. KARL IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE
BRITISH ISLES BY DAY 3.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0900Z 40.8N  41.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     24/1800Z 44.5N  40.4W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     25/0600Z 49.4N  37.7W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     25/1800Z 54.5N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     26/0600Z 59.2N  19.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     27/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net