[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 240251
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND THERE IS GOOD ORGANIZATION...
THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THIS WAS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE FACT
THAT JEANNE HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR A DAY OR SO...RESULTING IN
UPWELLING AND COOLER WATERS. THE WINDS COULD BE LOWERED AT THIS
TIME BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR THE RECON WHICH WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY
EARLY FRIDAY.  SO FOR NOW THE WINDS REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND AS SOON AS JEANNE MOVES WESTWARD OVER
THIS AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
THEN ANTICIPATED.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND IT APPEARS THAT
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS
BEGUN TO FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. BY THEN...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND THE
HURRICANE WILL TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH.
THIS TURN COULD EITHER OCCUR OVER THE PENINSULA OR ALONG THE EAST
COAST. NEVERTHERLESS...JEANNE IS A THREAT TO FLORIDA. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTENTLY
HAVE BEEN BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA FOR THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0300Z 26.1N  70.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 26.1N  72.2W    95 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 26.1N  74.5W   100 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 26.2N  77.0W   105 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 26.5N  79.0W   105 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 29.0N  81.0W    75 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  80.5W    45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     29/0000Z 38.0N  73.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net