[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 240246
SPFAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  72
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  93.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

30.5N  95.5W      61  X  X  X 61   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   1  9  5  X 15
29.5N  96.5W      22  6  1  X 29   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  1  3  X  4
29.0N  97.5W       9 12  2  X 23   GULF 28N 91W       X  1  1  X  2
NEW IBERIA LA     48  X  X  X 48   GULF 28N 93W       X  6  3  X  9
PORT ARTHUR TX    99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 95W       3 11  3  X 17
GALVESTON TX      39  X  X  X 39   GULF 27N 96W       X  6  5  X 11
FREEPORT TX       17  6  1  X 24   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  2  X  2
PORT O CONNOR TX   7 11  3  X 21

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7PM FRI TO  7AM SAT
C FROM  7AM SAT TO  7PM SAT
D FROM  7PM SAT TO  7PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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