[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 240237
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 80 NM TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO IMPACT LISA.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT LISA WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS INDICATES STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR BY DAY 4 AND OPENS LISA INTO A WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST BUT NOT
QUITE AS GENEROUS AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/6 KT. FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO CONFORM WITH THE CONU
CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      24/0300Z 14.7N  42.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N  42.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N  44.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.9N  45.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N  46.0W    35 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N  47.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 24.0N  48.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 28.5N  48.5W    50 KT


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