[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 23 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

T.S. IVAN IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29.4N 93.0W OR
ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA AT 23/2100
UTC. IVAN IS MOVING NW AT 7 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC OR FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IVAN REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED
CYCLONE...WITH LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE JEANNE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.9N 70.3W OR ABOUT 425
MILES... 680 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND AT 23/2100 UTC.
JEANNE IS MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90
KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 966 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
OR MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. JEANNE HAS A WELL
DEFINED EYE WITH 25 NM DIAMETER.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE NE UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO MOVE E TO SE OVER THE NW ATLC
AND IS PUSHING JEANNE TOWARD THE WEST TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. THE OUTFLOW  REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR SURROUNDS JEANNE HOPEFULLY HAMPERING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE KARL IS CENTERED NEAR 35.7N 43.3W OR ABOUT  915
MILES...1470 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES AT 23/2100 UTC. KARL IS
MOVING N AT 26 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 110 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
965 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. KARL'S EYE HAS BECOME
VERY RAGGED. SOME WEAKENING HAS ACCRUED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
KARL IS FORECAST TO GO EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-42N BETWEEN
38W-45W.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 40.7W OR ABOUT
1120 MILES...1800 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 23/2100
UTC. LISA IS NOW MOVING WNW AT 5 KT AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LISA HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER DUE TO NORTHERLY SHEAR. ALL
CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER. LISA IS EXPECTED TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFY AFTER 36 HOURS AS HURRICANE KARL MOVES
FURTHER AWAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 22W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10
KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 18W-25W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 14N10W 10N22W 12N40W 10N55W 11N70W 9N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 31W-33W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-74W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ASIDE FROM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.S. IVAN...MID/UPPER
LEVEL ELONGATED LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 19N94W. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N84W
CONTINUES TO  PUSHING NORTHWARD.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO THE
N GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 32N89W.  THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
STRONG S FLOW FROM 85W-95W WHICH IS  PRODUCING SHEAR OVER IVAN.
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY BUT BECOME
NARROWER AND EVEN MORE ELONGATED WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
AND EXTENDS FROM 28N89W SE TO 21N83W NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 86W-89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
19N84W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 75W-92W.
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W CUBA. A COL
AREA IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.  MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
STRONG...LARGE DEEP LAYERED HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR WASHINGTON
D.C. AT 39N76W.  STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH IS
PREVENTING HURRICANE JEANNE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD. THE HIGH IS
ALSO PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO MUCH OF THE W
ATLANTIC.  THE LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
REMAINS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W-65W AND IS LIFTING NE.  ELSEWHERE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A LARGE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 19N47W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO
WELL BEYOND 32N37W. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY
SHEAR OVER T.D. LISA.  MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 27N28W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 10N28W.  AT THE
SURFACE...THE SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS LARGELY
DISRUPTED OVER THE W ATLC BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE E
ATLC THROUGH THE AZORES S TO 15N30W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 25N1W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-40N E OF 22W.   A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS BETWEEN 22W-38W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RESUMES AGAIN
BETWEEN 38W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA




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