[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 231443
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  70
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  92.7 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

30.5N  95.3W      51  X  X  X 51   FREEPORT TX       36  X  X  1 37
30.6N  96.3W      33  1  X  1 35   PORT O CONNOR TX  12  3  3  2 20
30.4N  97.0W      24  2  1  1 28   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   2  4  5  4 15
MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  X  3  3   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  2  7  9
GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  2  2
BURAS LA           X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 91W       3  1  1  2  7
NEW ORLEANS LA     X  1  X  3  4   GULF 28N 93W      40  X  X  X 40
NEW IBERIA LA     99  X  X  X 99   GULF 28N 95W      21  X  1  1 23
PORT ARTHUR TX    87  X  X  X 87   GULF 27N 96W       2  2  4  5 13
GALVESTON TX      60  X  X  X 60   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  1  5  6

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7AM FRI TO  7PM FRI
C FROM  7PM FRI TO  7AM SAT
D FROM  7AM SAT TO  7AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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