[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 231441
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

THE SHORT TERM INITIAL MOTION IS 040/23.  THE TRACK FORECAST
SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD
ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A
LITTLE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE FIRST 24
HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND
KARL SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE EYE FEATURE IS QUITE RAGGED AND VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL...BUT WEAKENING COULD BE EVEN FASTER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/1500Z 33.8N  43.8W   105 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 37.6N  42.4W    95 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 42.9N  41.8W    85 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 47.4N  40.7W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 61.0N  19.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW


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