[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 230840
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

KARL HAS CONTINUED ITS INTENSIFYING TREND WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE BECOMING COLDER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE ALSO JUMPED
WITH A PAIR OF 6.0'S FROM TAFB AND SAB THIS MORNING.  THE EYE IS
STILL A BIT RAGGED BUT KARL APPEARS TO HAVE REGAINED MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 110 KT.  THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS KARL
IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS WITH GENERALLY
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS
PROBABLE WITH THE FORECAST INTENSITY BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.   EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY 36 HOURS AS
THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 21C.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS
ON TRACK...MOVING ABOUT 030/20.  SOME ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... WITH A BEND TO
THE NORTH EXPECTED AS KARL BECOMES MORE ENTANGLED WITH THE TROUGH
FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN GUNA AND THE GFS.
WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED AT 72 HOURS BASED ON GFS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0900Z 31.7N  45.8W   110 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 34.5N  44.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 39.5N  42.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 44.5N  41.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 49.5N  38.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 58.5N  22.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 65.5N   5.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     28/0600Z...ABSORBED


$$This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net