[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 230833
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  69
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  91.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

30.1N  95.0W      42  X  X  X 42   FREEPORT TX       33  1  X  X 34
30.7N  96.1W      29  1  X  1 31   PORT O CONNOR TX  14  2  2  1 19
31.0N  97.0W      21  5  1  1 28   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   3  3  2  4 12
MOBILE AL          X  X  X  2  2   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  1  4  5
GULFPORT MS        X  X  1  2  3   GULF 28N 89W       X  1  X  1  2
BURAS LA           1  1  X  2  4   GULF 28N 91W      99  X  X  X 99
NEW ORLEANS LA     5  1  X  2  8   GULF 28N 93W      71  X  X  X 71
NEW IBERIA LA     44  X  X  X 44   GULF 28N 95W      25  X  1  X 26
PORT ARTHUR TX    51  X  X  X 51   GULF 27N 96W       4  1  2  3 10
GALVESTON TX      46  X  X  X 46   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1AM FRI TO  1PM FRI
C FROM  1PM FRI TO  1AM SAT
D FROM  1AM SAT TO  1AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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